Modesto, CA crime analytics

Source & Methodology

Analytics built by:   Location, Inc.

Raw data sources:   18,000 local law enforcement agencies in the U.S.

Date(s) & Update Frequency:   Reflects 2020 calendar year; released from FBI in Sept. 2021 (latest available). Updated annually. Where is 2021 data?

Methodology:   Our nationwide meta-analysis overcomes the issues inherent in any crime database, including non-reporting and reporting errors. This is possible by associating the 9.4 million reported crimes in the U.S, including over 2 million geocoded point locations…. Read more about Scout's Crime Data

The crime rate in Modesto is considerably higher than the national average across all communities in America from the largest to the smallest, although at 32 crimes per one thousand residents, it is not among the communities with the very highest crime rate. The chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime in Modesto is 1 in 31. Based on FBI crime data, Modesto is not one of the safest communities in America. Relative to California, Modesto has a crime rate that is higher than 88% of the state's cities and towns of all sizes.

How does the crime rate in Modesto compare to similar sized communities across America? When NeighborhoodScout compared Modesto with other communities its size, we found that the crime rate was near the average for all other communities of similar size. So, whether Modesto's crime rate is high or low compared to all places in the US, when we control for population size and compare it to places that are similar in size, it is near the middle of the pack in crime rate; not much more or less dangerous, and about what we would expect from the statistics.

Now let us turn to take a look at how Modesto does for violent crimes specifically, and then how it does for property crimes. This is important because the overall crime rate can be further illuminated by understanding if violent crime or property crimes (or both) are the major contributors to the general rate of crime in Modesto.

For Modesto, we found that the violent crime rate is one of the highest in the nation, across communities of all sizes (both large and small). Violent offenses tracked included rape, murder and non-negligent manslaughter, armed robbery, and aggravated assault, including assault with a deadly weapon. According to NeighborhoodScout's analysis of FBI reported crime data, your chance of becoming a victim of one of these crimes in Modesto is one in 136.

NeighborhoodScout's analysis also reveals that Modesto's rate for property crime is 25 per one thousand population. This makes Modesto a place where there is an above average chance of becoming a victim of a property crime, when compared to all other communities in America of all population sizes. Property crimes are motor vehicle theft, arson, larceny, and burglary. Your chance of becoming a victim of any of these crimes in Modesto is one in 40.

Importantly, we found that Modesto has one of the highest rates of motor vehicle theft in the nation according to our analysis of FBI crime data. This is compared to communities of all sizes, from the smallest to the largest. In fact, your chance of getting your car stolen if you live in Modesto is one in 189.

Modesto Crime Data

 

Crime Index

11

(100 is safest)


Safer than 11% of U.S. Cities

Modesto Annual Crimes

  Violent Property Total

Number of Crimes

1,604

5,440

7,044

Crime Rate
(per 1,000 residents)

7.34

24.90

32.24

Violent Crime

Violent Crime Comparison (per 1,000 residents)

20 15 10 5 0
7.34
4.4
National Median: 4
    Modesto
    California

My Chances of Becoming a Victim of a Violent Crime

1 in 136

in Modesto

1 in 227

in California

Modesto VIOLENT CRIMES

Population: 218,464
Murder Rape Robbery Assault
Report Total 16 107 281 1,200
Rate per 1,000 0.07 0.49 1.29 5.49

United States VIOLENT CRIMES

Population: 331,449,281
Murder Rape Robbery Assault
Report Total 21,570 126,430 243,600 921,505
Rate per 1,000 0.07 0.38 0.73 2.78

Property Crime

Property Crime Comparison (per 1,000 residents)

100 75 50 25 0
24.9
21.3
National Median: 19
    Modesto
    California

My Chances of Becoming a Victim of a Property Crime

1 in 40

in Modesto

1 in 47

in California

Modesto Property CRIMES

Population: 218,464
burglary theft motor vehicle theft
Report Total 708 3,579 1,153
Rate per 1,000 3.24 16.38 5.28

United States Property CRIMES

Population: 331,449,281
burglary theft motor vehicle theft
Report Total 1,035,314 4,606,324 810,400
Rate per 1,000 3.12 13.90 2.45

Modesto Crimes Per Square Mile

200 150 100 50 0
190
77
National Median: 26.9
    Modesto
    California